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In Brandenburg, eastern Germany, prospective climate changes imply extreme weather events, increasing annual temperature, and decreasing summer precipitation. Since alley-cropping systems (ACS) have a broad planning horizon, appraising their sustainability and efficiency under changing climate conditions is crucial for forthcoming risk assessments and adaptation scenarios. Consequently, this combined experimental and simulation study investigated the growth vulnerability of poplar clone “Max I” (Populus nigra L. x P. maximowiczii Henry) and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) short rotation coppices in an ACS established in Brandenburg to a considerable spectrum of weather conditions and long term climate change, from 2015 to the end of 2054. The investigation employed (i) Yield-SAFE, a biophysical, process-based model to simulate the above-ground tree woody biomass and (ii) 100 realisations of the statistical regional climate model STAR 2K. In the most optimistic sequence of events pertaining to air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation, 35% more woody biomass would be achieved by poplar and 43% by black locust in the last period compared to the base period. Alternatively, in the most pessimistic circumstances, 54% less woody biomass would be rendered by poplar and 47% by black locust. Our findings corroborated the tree growth vulnerability to prospective climatic changes, particularly to changes in water availability.
In Brandenburg, north-eastern Germany, climate change is associated with increasing annual temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation. Appraising short rotation coppices (SRCs), given their long-time planning horizon demands for systematic assessments of woody biomass production under a considerable spectrum of climate change prospects. This paper investigates the prospective growth sensitivity of poplar and black locust SRCs, established in Brandenburg to a variety of weather conditions and long-term climate change, from 2015 to 2054, by a combined experimental and simulation study. The analysis employed (i) a biophysical, process-based model to simulate the daily tree growth and (ii) 100 realisations of the statistical regional climate model STAR 2K. In the last growing period, the simulations showed that the assumed climate change could lead to a decrease in the woody biomass of about 5 Mg ha -1 (18%) for poplar and a decrease of about 1.7 Mg ha -1 (11%) for black locust trees with respect to the median observed in the reference period. The findings corroborate the potential tree growth vulnerability to prospective climatic changes, particularly to changes in water availability and underline the importance of coping management strategies in SRCs for forthcoming risk assessments and adaptation scenarios.
Climate change is expected in Brandenburg, eastern Germany, in terms of increasing annual temperature and changes in climate variability, as well as the number of extreme weather events. Since agroforestry systems have a planning horizon of several decades, long-term yield assessments are required in order to evaluate the economic profitability and environmental sustainability of such systems. Accordingly, our aim was to simulate the tree growth of poplar trees (Populus nigra x P. maximowiczii) in an agroforestry system in Brandenburg for the next forty years. For this purpose, we used the process-oriented Yield-SAFE model, a parameter-sparse, biophysical model developed for the simulation of plant growth in agroforestry systems. For the investigated period from 2011 to 2014, the validation simulations showed clear correlations with the observed values for woody tree biomass. For the unfolding period from 2015 to 2055, a variety of possible climate changes (including higher evaporation requirements and reduced water availability) and their uncertainties were incorporated into our assessment. The tree yield sensitivity to future climatic conditions was evaluated using 100 realizations of a scenario of the statistical regional climate model Statistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STAR), which assumes an increase in annual temperature of 2K, as well as decreasing annual precipitation by 30–40 mm. The Yield-SAFE model responded sensitively to changes in the meteorological input data, showing that (1) shifts in temperature and/or precipitation would have a directly proportional influence on tree growth and (2) the impact of potential climate changes on tree growth must be assessed in terms of the complex interaction of various influencing factors. This was evidenced, for example, by the fact that higher average annual temperatures could either increase the tree growth due to a prolonged vegetation period or, on the contrary, decrease the tree growth due to higher potential evapotranspiration. The model results are important for the sustainable planning and management of agroforestry systems, upcoming risk assessments, and example analysis of adaptation scenarios in the near and distant future.
Experimental catchments with well-known boundaries and characteristics may contribute valuable data to hydrological, critical zone and landscape evolution research. One of the most well-established and largest constructed catchments is the Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha area including a 0.4 ha pond, Brandenburg, Germany) representing an initial ecosystem undergoing a highly dynamic ecological development starting from clearly defined starting conditions. The water balance dynamics of the catchment was calculated using a simple mass balance approach to reveal the impact of ecological development during 12 years. Water storage in the catchment was calculated from a 3D-model of groundwater volumes, soil moisture measurements and water level recordings of the pond. The catchment water balance equation was resolved for evapotranspiration, the only part that was not measured directly. Due to the known boundary conditions and the inner structure of the catchment, we were able to quantify the different storage compartments and their role in hydrologic response. Our results indicate that for small catchments with a highly dynamic ecological development like the Chicken Creek, the knowledge about saturated and unsaturated storage volumes enables a good estimate and closure of the water balance using a rather simple approach, at least in annual resolution. We found a significant relationship between vegetation cover in the catchment and calculated ET. Time series of meteorological, hydrological, soil and vegetation data over 12 years enabled us to characterize the transient development of the catchment and to evaluate the effect of different feedback mechanisms on catchment hydrology. The dataset from the Chicken Creek catchment indicate at least three phases in ecosystem development, where initial abiotic feedbacks (e.g. erosion) were followed by more and
more biotic controls (e.g. biological soil crusts, vegetation succession and growth). Data from Chicken Creek in high spatial and temporal resolution provide a valuable database underlining the high importance of abiotic/biotic feedback effects that change the hydrologic functioning and response of the catchment more than the water balance itself revealed and thus have to be included in catchment models.
Difficulties in quantitatively closing the water balance of catchments arise when upscaling point measurements and from insufficient knowledge of the physical boundaries, inner structure, and storage volumes of natural catchments. In addition, there is a strong need for generalizing the relationship between catchment characteristics and hydrological response. Therefore, experimental catchments with well-known boundaries and conditions could contribute valuable data to hydrological and critical zone research. One of the most well-established and largest constructed catchments is the Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha including a pond, Brandenburg, Germany) representing an initial ecosystem undergoing highly dynamic ecological development starting from clearly defined starting conditions. Directly after completion of the construction, extensive monitoring equipment was installed to track the ecosystem development and to capture the
spatiotemporal variability of meteorological, hydrological, ecological, and soil conditions and vegetation succession. In this study, we focused on the water balance dynamics of the Chicken Creek catchment for the period 2005 to 2015 as influenced by ecological development. Water storage in the catchment was calculated from a three-dimensional model of groundwater volumes, soil moisture measurements, and water level recordings of the pond. The catchment water balance equation was resolved for evapotranspiration, the only part that was not measured directly. Time series of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological data for 10 yr enabled us to characterize the transient development of the catchment and to evaluate the effect of different feedback mechanisms on catchment hydrology.
The constructed Hühnerwasser (“Chicken Creek”) catchment is an ecohydrological system in an initial state of development. The catchment with an area of 6 ha was built up from quaternary sediments in the post-mining landscape of Lusatia in Eastern Germany and serves as a critical zone observatory for detecting ecosystem transition. The soil substrate is characterized as sands to loamy sands with low carbonate contents but significant amounts of gypsum in the sediments of the catchment. The catchment undergoes a strong transition from an abiotic system in the initial years to a system with growing influence of biota. Concerning the hydrology, a regime shift from surface runoff to groundwater flow dominated processes is significant. It is of interest, whether the catchment transition is also reflected by hydrogeochemical indicators. We assume gypsum dissolution as dominant process at the catchment scale. In order to investigate the hydrogeochemical evolution of the catchment we analysed electric conductivity, calcium and sulphate concentrations and pH-values of biweekly composite samples from 2007-2013 of the atmospheric deposition, of runoff and soil water. The two observation points in the flowing water represent surface runoff and groundwater discharge respectively. Soil
water has been analysed at four soil pits in three depths. The monitoring data were provided by the Research
Platform Chicken Creek. From the macroscopic data analysis we found an exponential decay of the electric conductivity, calcium and sulphate concentrations in the flowing waters and some of the soil pits. In the flowing water, the decrease slope of the electric conductivity and the calcium and sulphate concentrations is almost identical. The calcium / sulphate molar ratio as an indicator of gypsum dissolution is almost equal to one up to 2010, afterwards more calcium than sulphate is released. The pH-values in the flowing and soil water are generally higher than in the atmospheric deposition, they do show variabilites but no trend behaviour. The time series analyses showed that the interannual variability of the hydrogeochemical properties is less pronounced in the first years of ecosystem development than in the later years. This leads to the conclusion, that in the first years, gypsum dissolution is the major source for calcium and sulphate in the soil and the flowing waters. The increasing interannual variability and changes in the calcium / sulphate ratio in the later years might be interpreted as hydrogeochemical response to the development of vegetation and acidification due to the development of the rhizosphere.