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Climate change is expected in Brandenburg, eastern Germany, in terms of increasing annual temperature and changes in climate variability, as well as the number of extreme weather events. Since agroforestry systems have a planning horizon of several decades, long-term yield assessments are required in order to evaluate the economic profitability and environmental sustainability of such systems. Accordingly, our aim was to simulate the tree growth of poplar trees (Populus nigra x P. maximowiczii) in an agroforestry system in Brandenburg for the next forty years. For this purpose, we used the process-oriented Yield-SAFE model, a parameter-sparse, biophysical model developed for the simulation of plant growth in agroforestry systems. For the investigated period from 2011 to 2014, the validation simulations showed clear correlations with the observed values for woody tree biomass. For the unfolding period from 2015 to 2055, a variety of possible climate changes (including higher evaporation requirements and reduced water availability) and their uncertainties were incorporated into our assessment. The tree yield sensitivity to future climatic conditions was evaluated using 100 realizations of a scenario of the statistical regional climate model Statistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STAR), which assumes an increase in annual temperature of 2K, as well as decreasing annual precipitation by 30–40 mm. The Yield-SAFE model responded sensitively to changes in the meteorological input data, showing that (1) shifts in temperature and/or precipitation would have a directly proportional influence on tree growth and (2) the impact of potential climate changes on tree growth must be assessed in terms of the complex interaction of various influencing factors. This was evidenced, for example, by the fact that higher average annual temperatures could either increase the tree growth due to a prolonged vegetation period or, on the contrary, decrease the tree growth due to higher potential evapotranspiration. The model results are important for the sustainable planning and management of agroforestry systems, upcoming risk assessments, and example analysis of adaptation scenarios in the near and distant future.
Transitioning towards agroforestry demands systematic productivity assessments of such systems under different climatic and edaphic conditions. In this regard, the Land Equivalent Ratio (LER) serves as a valuable productivity indicator of agroforestry since it evaluates yields from growing trees and crops together in comparison to yields from monocultures over the same period. Consequently, our objective was to evaluate the overall productivity of two agroforestry systems in Forst (Brandenburg) and Wendhausen (Lower Saxony) by means of LER. Our approach followed two assumptions: (i) the yields of trees and crops had equal economic importance and (ii) the economic importance was given solely by the annual crop, the yield of trees representing a supplementary profit. The resulted values for LER were consistently above their specific threshold, corroborating the greater efficiency of agroforestry systems rather than monoculture. Additionally, this study highlighted the importance of choosing the appropriate assumptions when calculating the LER.
The profitability of reclaiming post-mining areas depends on the tree biomass productivity and the restoration of ecosystem functions, such as improving soil and water quality. Agroforestry systems, regarded as combined land-use systems of trees and crops, have the ability to facilitate soil development while reducing wind speed, soil erosion and evaporation. Achieving the maximum biomass productivity of the tree stands depends on the corresponding soil conditions and water availability, but is also influenced by stand structure and the competition between individual trees. For this purpose, black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) trees were planted in a Nelder design in 2010, on a reclaimed post-mining site of the open-cast lignite mining in Welzow Süd (Brandenburg, Germany). Black locust is regarded as a drought-adapted tree species and commonly used for the reclamation of former lignite mining sites in Lower Lusatia, Germany. The Nelder design encompasses angles of arc of equal measure and with the same origin traversed by successive circumferences set at a predefined radial distance. Accordingly, a total of 1071 trees were planted in Welzow Süd at the intersection between 63 spokes and 17 circumferences and at densities ranging from 0.4 to 8.0 m2, with the aim of examining the influence of stand density on the tree growth in a timeframe of six years. In order to evaluate the biomass production of the trees and to determine an optimal planting density on a marginal land, various scenarios were assessed with the help of the Yield-SAFE model, a parameter-sparse process-based agroforestry model. The study revealed the consequences of choosing different tree densities on the tree biomass productivity and water use of trees in relation to the competition for light and water.
In Brandenburg, north-eastern Germany, climate change is associated with increasing annual temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation. Appraising short rotation coppices (SRCs), given their long-time planning horizon demands for systematic assessments of woody biomass production under a considerable spectrum of climate change prospects. This paper investigates the prospective growth sensitivity of poplar and black locust SRCs, established in Brandenburg to a variety of weather conditions and long-term climate change, from 2015 to 2054, by a combined experimental and simulation study. The analysis employed (i) a biophysical, process-based model to simulate the daily tree growth and (ii) 100 realisations of the statistical regional climate model STAR 2K. In the last growing period, the simulations showed that the assumed climate change could lead to a decrease in the woody biomass of about 5 Mg ha -1 (18%) for poplar and a decrease of about 1.7 Mg ha -1 (11%) for black locust trees with respect to the median observed in the reference period. The findings corroborate the potential tree growth vulnerability to prospective climatic changes, particularly to changes in water availability and underline the importance of coping management strategies in SRCs for forthcoming risk assessments and adaptation scenarios.
The alley-cropping systems (ACSs), which integrate parallel tree strips at varying distances on an agricultural field can result, complementarity of resource use, in an increased land-use efficiency. Practitioners’ concerns have been directed towards the productivity of such systems given a reduced area covered by agricultural crops. The land equivalent ratio (LER) serves as a valuable productivity indicator of yield performance and land-use efficiency in ACSs, as it compares the yields achieved in monocultures to those from ACSs. Consequently, the objective of this combined experimental and simulation study was to assess the tree- and crop-yields and to derive the LER and gross energy yield for two temperate ACSs in Germany under different design scenarios, i.e., tree arrangements (lee- or wind-ward) and ratios of tree area to crop area. Both LER and gross energy yields resulted in a convex curve where the maximum values were achieved when either the tree or crop component was dominant (>75% of the land area) and minimum when these components shared similar proportions of land area. The implications of several design scenarios have been discussed in order to improve the decision-making, optimization, and adaptation of the design of ACSs with respect to site-specific characteristics
Filling missing data in forest research is paramount for the analysis of primary data, forest statistics, land use strategies, as well as for the calibration/validation of forest growth models. Consequently, our main objective was to investigate several methods of filling missing data under a reduced sample size. From a complete dataset containing yearly first-rotation tree growth measurements over a period of eight years, we gradually retrieved two and then four years of measurements, hence operating on 72% and 43% of the original data. Secondly, 15 statistical models, five forest growth functions, and one biophysical, process-oriented, tree growth model were employed for filling these data gap representations accounting for 72% and 43% of the available data. Several models belonging to (i) regression analysis, (ii) statistical imputation, (iii) forest growth functions, and (iv) tree growth models were applied in order to retrieve information about the trees from existing yearly measurements. Subsequently, the findings of this study could lead to finding a handy tool for both researchers and practitioners dealing with incomplete datasets. Moreover, we underline the paramount demand for far-sighted, long-term research projects for the expansion and maintenance of a short rotation forestry (SRF) repository.
In Brandenburg, eastern Germany, prospective climate changes imply extreme weather events, increasing annual temperature, and decreasing summer precipitation. Since alley-cropping systems (ACS) have a broad planning horizon, appraising their sustainability and efficiency under changing climate conditions is crucial for forthcoming risk assessments and adaptation scenarios. Consequently, this combined experimental and simulation study investigated the growth vulnerability of poplar clone “Max I” (Populus nigra L. x P. maximowiczii Henry) and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) short rotation coppices in an ACS established in Brandenburg to a considerable spectrum of weather conditions and long term climate change, from 2015 to the end of 2054. The investigation employed (i) Yield-SAFE, a biophysical, process-based model to simulate the above-ground tree woody biomass and (ii) 100 realisations of the statistical regional climate model STAR 2K. In the most optimistic sequence of events pertaining to air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation, 35% more woody biomass would be achieved by poplar and 43% by black locust in the last period compared to the base period. Alternatively, in the most pessimistic circumstances, 54% less woody biomass would be rendered by poplar and 47% by black locust. Our findings corroborated the tree growth vulnerability to prospective climatic changes, particularly to changes in water availability.