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A research framework for projecting ecosystem change in highly diverse tropical mountain ecosystems
(2021)
Tropical mountain ecosystems are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Their diversity and complexity make projections how they respond to environmental changes challenging. A suitable way are trait-based approaches, by distinguishing between response traits that determine the resistance of species to environmental changes and effect traits that are relevant for species' interactions, biotic processes, and ecosystem functions. The combination of those approaches with land surface models (LSM) linking the functional community composition to ecosystem functions provides new ways to project the response of ecosystems to environmental changes. With the interdisciplinary project RESPECT, we propose a research framework that uses a trait-based response-effect-framework (REF) to quantify relationships between abiotic conditions, the diversity of functional traits in communities, and associated biotic processes, informing a biodiversity-LSM. We apply the framework to a megadiverse tropical mountain forest. We use a plot design along an elevation and a land-use gradient to collect data on abiotic drivers, functional traits, and biotic processes. We integrate these data to build the biodiversity-LSM and illustrate how to test the model. REF results show that aboveground biomass production is not directly related to changing climatic conditions, but indirectly through associated changes in functional traits. Herbivory is directly related to changing abiotic conditions. The biodiversity-LSM informed by local functional trait and soil data improved the simulation of biomass production substantially. We conclude that local data, also derived from previous projects (platform Ecuador), are key elements of the research framework. We specify essential datasets to apply this framework to other mountain ecosystems.
Weather radar networks are indispensable tools for forecasting and disaster prevention in industrialized countries. However, they are far less common in the countries of South America, which frequently suffer from an underdeveloped network of meteorological stations. To address this problem in southern Ecuador, this article presents a novel radar network using cost-effective, single-polarization, X-band technology: the RadarNet-Sur. The RadarNet-Sur network is based on three scanning X-band weather radar units that cover approximately 87,000 km2 of southern Ecuador. Several instruments, including five optical disdrometers and two vertically aligned K-band Doppler radar profilers, are used to properly (inter) calibrate the radars. Radar signal processing is a major issue in the high mountains of Ecuador because cost-effective radar technologies typically lack Doppler capabilities. Thus, special procedures were developed for clutter detection and beam blockage correction by integrating ground-based and satelliteborne measurements. To demonstrate practical applications, a map of areas frequently affected by intense rainfall is presented, based on a time series of one radar that has been in operation since 2002. Such information is of vital importance to, for example, infrastructure management because rain-driven landslides are a major issue for road maintenance and safety throughout Ecuador. The presented case study of exceptionally strong rain events during the recent El Niño in March 2015 highlights the system’s practicality in weather forecasting related to disaster management. For the first time, RadarNet-Sur warrants a spatial-explicit observation of El Niño-related heavy precipitation in a transect from the coast to the highlands in a spatial resolution of 500 m.
Formation of Convective Clouds at the Foothills of the Tropical Eastern Andes (South Ecuador)
(2009)
This study examines the seasonal and diurnal dynamics of convective cloud entities—small cells and a mesoscale convective complex–like pattern—in the foothills of the tropical eastern Andes. The investigation is based on Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-East (GOES-E) satellite imagery (2005–07), images of a scanning X-band rain radar, and data from regular meteorological stations. The work was conducted in the framework of a major ecological research program, the Research Unit 816, in which meteorological instruments are installed in the Rio San Francisco valley, breaching the eastern Andes of south Ecuador. GOES image segmentation to discriminate convective cells and other clouds is performed for a 600 × 600 km2 target area, using the concept of connected component labeling by applying the 8-connectivity scheme as well as thresholds for minimum blackbody temperature, spatial extent, and eccentricity of the extracted components. The results show that the formation of convective clouds in the lowland part of the target area mainly occurs in austral summer during late afternoon. Nocturnal enhancement of cell formation could be observed from October to April (particularly February–April) between 0100 and 0400 LST (LST = UTC − 5 h) in the Andean foothill region of the target area, which is the relatively dry season of the adjacent eastern Andean slopes. Nocturnal cell formation is especially marked southeast of the Rio San Francisco valley in the southeast Andes of Ecuador, where a confluence area of major katabatic outflow systems coincide with a quasi-concave shape of the Andean terrain line. The confluent cold-air drainage flow leads to low-level instability and cellular convection in the warm, moist Amazon air mass. The novel result of the current study is to provide statistical evidence that, under these special topographic situations, katabatic outflow is strong enough to generate mainly mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) with a great spatial extent. The MCC-like systems often increase in expanse during their mature phase and propagate toward the Andes because of the prevailing upper-air easterlies, causing early morning peaks of rainfall in the valley of the Rio San Francisco. It is striking that MCC formation in the foothill area is clearly reduced during the main rainy season [June–August (JJA)] of the higher eastern Andean slopes. At a first glance, this contradiction can be explained by rainfall persistence in the Rio San Francisco valley, which is clearly lower during the time of convective activity (December–April) in comparison with JJA, during which low-intensity rainfall is released by predominantly advective clouds with greater temporal endurance.
In this paper, the central Pacific cold event of 2008 and its exceptionally warm conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific are analyzed by using rainfall data of south Ecuadorian meteorological stations, sea surface temperatures in the El Niño3 and 1+2 regions, and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It can be shown that El Niño-like rainfall conditions with severe inundations occur particularly in the coastal plains of southern Ecuador while a central Pacific cold event prevails. In contrary to previous situations, positive rainfall anomalies as a result of El Niño-like conditions in the El Niño1+2 region during the 2008 La Niña event occurred in both regions, the coastal plains and the highlands, for the first time. A detailed analysis of the ocean-atmosphere system during episodes of heavy rainfall reveals typical El Niño circulation and rainfall patterns as observed during previous El Niño events for the coastal area and La Niña-like conditions for the highlands. The spreading of Pacific instability in the Niño1+2 region to the eastern escarpment of the Andes could be the result of a temporary eastward shift of the Walker circulation. The unusual combination of El Niño-like conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific during a La Niña state in the central Pacific is the newest indicator for an impact mode shift regarding severe rainfall anomalies during El Niño/La Niña events in the traditional El Niño area of southern Ecuador since the end of the last century. Since 2000, El Niño events unexpectedly provide below average rainfall while central Pacific La Niña conditions generate exceptional severe flooding in the normally drier coastal plains. The novel sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly dipole structure between the eastern and central/western tropical Pacific and the weakening of El Niño events since 2000 could be due to natural decadal oscillations in the El Niño background state, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the observed atmospheric patterns and the recent increase of the SST anomaly difference between the central and the eastern tropical Pacific resemble structures that also result from climate change simulations.
Europe and the Middle East
(2017)
In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s
atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—
continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 ±
0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015
to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-
year measurement record. The annual global average carbon
dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface surpassed 400 ppm
(402.9 ± 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric
measurement record and in ice core records dating back as
far as 800000 years.
One of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Niña evolved later in the year.
Owing at least in part to the combination of El Niño conditions
early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth’s surface
observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit
by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set
in 2015. Above Earth’s surface, the annual lower troposphere
temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed,
while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low
according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets.
Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported
record high annual temperatures while many others observed
near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April
over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44°C, contributed to a water crisis for 330
million people and to 300 fatalities.
In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0°C
above the 1981–2010 average, breaking the previous record of
2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8°C, representing a 3.5°C increase
since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures
have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On
24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season
saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying
with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981–2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the
second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981–2010
average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin,
making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of
the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute
~7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset
of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the
37-year satellite record.
Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale,
surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01°C. The
global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st centuryto-date of +0.162°C decade−1 is much higher than the longer
term 1950–2016 trend of +0.100°C decade−1. Global annual
mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the
sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat
content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015.
Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and
preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive
year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern
Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to
June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite
record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high
temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost
observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island.
In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were
broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high
surface pressure records for August and November were set
at several stations. During this period, record low daily and
monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November
mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the
1981–2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast
sharply with the record high values observed during 2012–14.
Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone
depletion was less severe relative to the 1991–2006 average,
but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels.
Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981–2010 average of 82, but
fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins—the
North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific—experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin
recorded its least active season since the beginning of the
satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached
the Saffir–Simpson category 5 intensity level.
The strong El Niño at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Niña contributed to enhanced precipitation
variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed
throughout the year across southern South America, causing
repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern
Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of
2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after
being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area
covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the
largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of
land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse,
the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil,
drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive
year, making this the longest drought on record in the region.
Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru;
it was Bolivia’s worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with
abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over
western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort
McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became
the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S.
dollars) in insured losses.
Europe and the Middle East
(2018)
In 2017, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s
atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—
reached new record highs. The annual global average carbon
dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface for 2017 was 405.0
± 0.1 ppm, 2.2 ppm greater than for 2016 and the highest in
the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core
records dating back as far as 800 000 years. The global growth
rate of CO2 has nearly quadrupled since the early 1960s.
With ENSO-neutral conditions present in the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during most of the year and
weak La Niña conditions notable at the start and end, the global
temperature across land and ocean surfaces ranked as the second or third highest, depending on the dataset, since records
began in the mid-to-late 1800s. Notably, it was the warmest
non-El Niño year in the instrumental record. Above Earth’s
surface, the annual lower tropospheric temperature was also
either second or third highest according to all datasets analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was about 0.2°C
higher than the record cold temperature of 2016 according to
most of the in situ and satellite datasets.
Several countries, including Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, and
Bulgaria, reported record high annual temperatures. Mexico
broke its annual record for the fourth consecutive year. On 27
January, the temperature reached 43.4°C at Puerto Madryn,
Argentina—the highest temperature recorded so far south
(43°S) anywhere in the world. On 28 May in Turbat, western
Pakistan, the high of 53.5°C tied Pakistan’s all-time highest
temperature and became the world-record highest temperature for May.
In the Arctic, the 2017 land surface temperature was 1.6°C
above the 1981–2010 average, the second highest since the
record began in 1900, behind only 2016. The five highest annual
Arctic temperatures have all occurred since 2007. Exceptionally
high temperatures were observed in the permafrost across
the Arctic, with record values reported in much of Alaska and
northwestern Canada. In August, high sea surface temperature
(SST) records were broken for the Chukchi Sea, with some
regions as warm as +11°C, or 3° to 4°C warmer than the longterm mean (1982–present). According to paleoclimate studies,
today’s abnormally warm Arctic air and SSTs have not been
observed in the last 2000 years. The increasing temperatures
have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On
7 March, sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw
its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, covering
8% less area than the 1981–2010 average. The Arctic sea ice
minimum on 13 September was the eighth lowest on record
and covered 25% less area than the long-term mean.
Preliminary data indicate that glaciers across the world lost
mass for the 38th consecutive year on record; the declines
are remarkably consistent from region to region. Cumulatively
since 1980, this loss is equivalent to slicing 22 meters off the
top of the average glacier.
Antarctic sea ice extent remained below average for all of
2017, with record lows during the first four months. Over
the continent, the austral summer seasonal melt extent and
melt index were the second highest since 2005, mostly due to
strong positive anomalies of air temperature over most of the
West Antarctic coast. In contrast, the East Antarctic Plateau
saw record low mean temperatures in March. The year was
also distinguished by the second smallest Antarctic ozone hole
observed since 1988.
Across the global oceans, the overall long-term SST warming
trend remained strong. Although SST cooled slightly from 2016
to 2017, the last three years produced the three highest annual
values observed; these high anomalies have been associated
with widespread coral bleaching. The most recent global coral
bleaching lasted three full years, June 2014 to May 2017, and
was the longest, most widespread, and almost certainly most
destructive such event on record. Global integrals of 0–700-
m and 0–2000-m ocean heat content reached record highs in
2017, and global mean sea level during the year became the
highest annual average in the 25-year satellite altimetry record,
rising to 77 mm above the 1993 average.
In the tropics, 2017 saw 85 named tropical storms, slightly
above the 1981–2010 average of 82. The North Atlantic basin
was the only basin that featured an above-normal season, its
seventh most active in the 164-year record. Three hurricanes
in the basin were especially notable. Harvey produced record
rainfall totals in areas of Texas and Louisiana, including a storm
total of 1538.7 mm near Beaumont, Texas, which far exceeds
the previous known U.S. tropical cyclone record of 1320.8 mm.
Irma was the strongest tropical cyclone globally in 2017 and the
strongest Atlantic hurricane outside of the Gulf of Mexico and
Caribbean on record with maximum winds of 295 km h−1. Maria
caused catastrophic destruction across the Caribbean Islands,
including devastating wind damage and flooding across Puerto
Rico. Elsewhere, the western North Pacific, South Indian, and
Australian basins were all particularly quiet.
Precipitation over global land areas in 2017 was clearly above
the long-term average. Among noteworthy regional precipitation records in 2017, Russia reported its second wettest year
on record (after 2013) and Norway experienced its sixth wettest year since records began in 1900. Across India, heavy rain
and flood-related incidents during the monsoon season claimed
around 800 lives. In August and September, above-normal
precipitation triggered the most devastating floods in more
than a decade in the Venezuelan states of Bolívar and Delta
Amacuro. In Nigeria, heavy rain during August and September
caused the Niger and Benue Rivers to overflow, bringing floods
that displaced more than 100 000 people.
Global fire activity was the lowest since at least 2003; however, high activity occurred in parts of North America, South
America, and Europe, with an unusually long season in Spain
and Portugal, which had their second and third driest years
on record, respectively. Devastating fires impacted British
Columbia, destroying 1.2 million hectares of timber, bush, and
grassland, due in part to the region’s driest summer on record.
In the United States, an extreme western wildfire season
burned over 4 million hectares; the total costs of $18 billion
tripled the previous U.S. annual wildfire cost record set in 1991.
An interdisciplinary research unit consisting of 30 teams in the natural, economic and social sciences analyzed biodiversity and ecosystem services of a mountain rainforest ecosystem in the hotspot of the tropical Andes, with special reference to past, current and future environmental changes. The group assessed ecosystem services using data from ecological field and scenario-driven model experiments, and with the help of comparative field surveys of the natural forest and its anthropogenic replacement system for agriculture.
The book offers insights into the impacts of environmental change on various service categories mentioned in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005): cultural, regulating, supporting and provisioning ecosystem services. Examples focus on biodiversity of plants and animals including trophic networks, and abiotic/biotic parameters such as soils, regional climate, water, nutrient and sediment cycles. The types of threats considered include land use and climate changes, as well as atmospheric fertilization. In terms of regulating and provisioning services, the emphasis is primarily on water regulation and supply as well as climate regulation and carbon sequestration. With regard to provisioning services, the synthesis of the book provides science-based recommendations for a sustainable land use portfolio including several options such as forestry, pasture management and the practices of indigenous peoples. In closing, the authors show how they integrated the local society by pursuing capacity building in compliance with the CBD-ABS (Convention on Biological Diversity - Access and Benefit Sharing), in the form of education and knowledge transfer for application.
Mountain regions worldwide present a pronounced spatiotemporal precipitation variability, which added to scarce monitoring networks limits our understanding of the generation processes involved. To improve our understanding of clouds and precipitation dynamics and cross-scale generation processes in mountain regions, we analyzed spatiotemporal rainfall patterns using satellite cloud products (SCP) in the Paute basin (900–4200 m a.s.l. and 6481 km2) in the Andes of Ecuador. Precipitation models, using SCP and GIS data, reveal the spatial extension of three regimes: a three-modal (TM) regime present across the basin, a bimodal (BM) regime, along sheltered valleys, and a unimodal (UM) regime at windward slopes of the eastern cordillera. Subsequently, the spatiotemporal analysis using synoptic information shows that the dry season of the BM regime during boreal summer is caused by strong subsidence inhibiting convective clouds formation. Meanwhile, in UM regions, low advective shallow cap clouds mainly cause precipitation, influenced by water vapor from the Amazon and enhanced easterlies during boreal summer. TM regions are transition zones from UM to BM and zones on the windward slopes of the western cordillera. These results highlight the suitability of satellite and GIS data-driven statistical models to study spatiotemporal rainfall seasonality and generation processes in complex terrain, as the Andes.
Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) climatology, the thermodynamic and dynamical variables, and teleconnections influencing MCSs development are assessed for the Paute basin (PB) in the Ecuadorian Andes from 2000 to 2009. *e seasonality of MCSs occurrence shows a bimodal pattern, with higher occurrence during March-April (MA) and October-November (ON), analogous to the regional rainfall seasonality. *e diurnal cycle of MCSs shows a clear nocturnal occurrence, especially during the MA and ON periods. Interestingly, despite the higher occurrence of MCSs during the rainy seasons, the monthly size relative frequency remains fairly constant throughout the year. On the east of the PB, the persistent high convective available potential and low convective inhibition values from midday to nighttime are likely related to the nocturnal development of the MCSs. A significant positive correlation between the MCSs occurrence to the west of the PB and the Trans-Niño index was found, suggesting that ENSO is an important source of interannual variability of MCSs frequency with increasing development of MCSs during warm ENSO phases. On the east of the PB, the variability of MCSs is positively correlated to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies south of the equator, due to the variability of the Atlantic subtropical anticyclone, showing main departures from this relation when anomalous conditions occur in the tropical Pacific due to ENSO.
Atmosphere-surface fluxes modeling for the high Andes: The case of páramo catchments of Ecuador
(2020)
Interest in atmosphere-surface flux modeling over the mountainous regions of the globe has increased recently, with a major focus on the prediction of water, carbon and other functional indicators in natural and disturbed conditions. However, less research has been centered on exploring energy fluxes (net radiation; sensible, latent and soil heat) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) over the Neotropical Andean biome of the páramo. The present study assesses the implementation and parameterization of a state-of-art Land-Surface Model (LSM) for simulation of these fluxes over two representative páramo catchments of southern Ecuador. We evaluated the outputs of the LSM Community Land Model (CLM ver. 4.0) with (i) ground-level flux observations from the first (and highest) Eddy Covariance (EC) tower of the Northern Andean páramos; (ii) spatial ETa estimates from the energy balance-based model METRIC (based on Landsat imagery); and (iii) derived ETa from the closure of the water balance (WB). CLM’s energy predictions revealed a significant underestimation on net radiation, which impacts the sensible and soil heat fluxes (underestimation), and delivers a slight overestimation on latent heat flux. Modeled CLM ETa showed acceptable goodness-of-fit (Pearson R = 0.82) comparable to ETa from METRIC (R = 0.83). Contrarily, a poor performance of ETa WB was observed (R = 0.46). These findings provide solid evidence on the CLM’s accuracy for the ETa modeling, and give insights in the selection of other ETa methods. The study contributes to a better understanding of ecosystem functioning in terms of water loss through evaporative processes, and might help in the development of future LSMs’ implementations focused on climate / land use change scenarios for the páramo.