Development and application of a logistic model to estimate the past and future hail potential in Germany

  • This study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north‐to‐south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that theThis study investigates to what extent the frequency of hail events in the summer months has changed during the past decades and which changes are expected to occur in the future. To improve the diagnostics of hail events by considering various factors relevant for the formation of hail, a logistic hail model has been developed by means of a multivariate analysis method. This statistical model is based on a combination of appropriate meteorological parameters (convective parameter, moisture content, etc.) and synoptic weather types. The output of the model is a new index that estimates the potential of the atmosphere for hailstorm development, referred to as potential hail index. Validations with independent data sets confirm the reliability of the model results. For Germany, the logistic hail model applied to reanalysis data over the past decades shows a markedly north‐to‐south gradient with most of the potential hail days occurring in the south. Applied to an ensemble of seven regional climate model simulations, it is found that the potential for hail events will increase in the future (2021–2050) compared to the past (1971–2000), but only statistically significant in the northwest and south of Germany.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author: Susanna Mohr, Michael Kunz, Klaus KeulerORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022959
ISSN:2169-8996
Title of the source (English):Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Document Type:Scientific journal article peer-reviewed
Language:English
Year of publication:2015
Volume/Year:120
Issue number:9
First Page:3939
Last Page:3956
Faculty/Chair:Fakultät 2 Umwelt und Naturwissenschaften / FG Atmosphärische Prozesse
Institution name at the time of publication:Fakultät für Umweltwissenschaften und Verfahrenstechnik (eBTU) / LS Umweltmeteorologie
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